Last night the notoriously consistent second place finishing trivia team Butterhelmet finally rose to the occasion. The time had come for the gloating team in the booth in the back (This time named "Seven deadly sins" in honor of what they believe to be their seventh consecutive victory) to get their comeuppance. Butterhelmet had been beaten down. Five straight second place finishes had worn them down, and the absence of founding member Peter had them on the ropes. As they turned in their sheet, they felt forlorn. Their hopes shattered by one of the hardest celebrity identification sections they had ever seen. As David read the names though, the competitors fell. One by one they fell by the wayside, even the mighty Seven Deadly Sins. At the end of the day, only one team could say with pride that they were the team to end the streak. Only one team could lift the tiny plastic trophy high in the air with glee. Only one team could take the king's ransom of 67 dollars and say. Yes, yes we are winners. That team was Butterhelmet.
The breakthrough over, the titan toppled, what lies next for Butterhelmet? Will they be forced to go their separate ways? Or will this victory propel them to even greater glory? Only time will tell.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Friday, May 22, 2009
Pitchers Pitching Poorly
At about the quarter point of the season owners begin to get antsy. These are some guys whose peripherals that indicate future success (BABIP, k/bb, home runs allowed) are still good, but have just been the victim of some bad luck. These are guys you should look to trade for, or if you are in a shallow league and they have been cut, pick them up (this list is not in any specific order).
1. Randy Johnson - Giants - P - His HR/FB rate has skyrocketed this season from 11.3% on his career to 24.4%. This is bound to regress to the mean as he is still striking people out at close to his career rate (9.30/9) and his walk rate has not skyrocketed (3.54/9). Also his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .337, which is far higher than his .302 career average. For those who aren't privy to any kind of advanced metrics, BABIP is considered a luck stat for pitchers because outside of allowing a fly ball, line drive or ground ball, he has little control over what happens after that. Once a large sample size can be accrued (and in Johnson's case this is a HUGE sample) we can get an idea of what amount of balls hit into play will turn into hits. When both the home runs and the hits regress, we are going to see a huge hot streak from Johnson. The only way this doesn't happen is if he has been playing hurt, which I don't believe.
2. Ricky Nolasco - Marlins - P - His BABIP is an insane .387, and there is no way this can continue. His strikeout rate is actually improved, and his walk rate hasn't been significantly worse. His Line Drive rate has spiked, and that can be a sign that he has become more hittable, but I say that he starts to put things together in the second half (just like last year) and becomes very valuable to teams down the stretch.
3. Jon Lester - Boston - P - .385 BABIP (compared to .314 career) + a K/9 and K/BB that is better than his career numbers by a significant margin + a Line Drive rate that is super low = a great run in the works for Jon Lester. He is still very young, and don't let this rough start deter you from acquiring Lester.
4. John Danks - White Sox - P - His BABIP is a little high and everything else looks great. His strikeout rate is actually higher and remember he is only 23. Inconsistency is expected, and when he turns it around, you are going to wish you had him on your team.
5. Cole Hamels - Phillies - P - It may be possible that his owner hasn't given up on him, but if you can get him for any sort of reduced price you should do it. He has gotten his yearly injury out of the way, his peripherals are great and he is a top 5 fantasy pitcher without any problem. Buy buy buy.
Enigmas - this is a list of players who could go either way and I'm not sure if they will turn it around or not: Fausto Carmona (needs to lower his walk rate to have any success 30k/30bb is not cutting it), Fransisco Liriano (having huge problems with his HR rate, the 30 allowed this year would be more than the 20 he had allowed in his career previous to this year), Clayton Kershaw (at age 20 is he just too young to have success at this level), Jordan Zimmerman (Same as Kershaw), Kevin Slowey (Can he stop allowing home runs and being to complement his stellar k/bb), Armando Gallaraga (showing signs of turning it around, but can he control the walks), and Chien Ming-Wang (Can he regain control of his sinker)
People who I think are not going to turn it around - Josh Beckett (Has not been really good since coming to Boston except for one pretty good season and a lot of playoff success), Scott Baker (allowing a ton of HRs, not striking anyone out, hasn't been the same since coming off the DL), Ryan Dempster (He is what he is, he was never as good as last season in the first place), AJ Burnett (Huge injury risk, only really dominant in Ks anyway and will kill your WHIP), Chris Young (Always has allowed too many flyballs to have sustainable success, finally paying for it), Rich Harden (will eventually get injured) and Brett Myers (total headcase that I don't trust at all).
Guys I totally believe in but weren't horrible enough to make the top list:
Brandon Webb - I totally believe in, he has just been hurt, if you can get him cheaply, do it, he can win you a matchup down the stretch.
Roy Oswalt - Won't be the Oswalt of his absolute prime, but should be able to get his ERA back down to 3.5 by the end of the year.
Scott Kazmir - Always has injury problems, but that is part of the package with him. Don't set your expectations too high as he is likely going to end up with an ERA close to 4.
I will leave you with two more guys that present huge risk/reward plays but I believe have shown signs of turning it around.
1. Gil Meche - He has said he was fighting stamina issues and I think if he can get past those he can be huge for you down the stretch. The Royals have been much better and can finally give run support. He is still striking out a guy an inning and can likely be had very cheaply.
2. Carl Pavano - K/BB is great, has started to look better and at one time was a huge prospect. Not someone I would grab at the cost of someone with value, but definitely someone to keep an eye on.
Best of luck in all your leagues.
1. Randy Johnson - Giants - P - His HR/FB rate has skyrocketed this season from 11.3% on his career to 24.4%. This is bound to regress to the mean as he is still striking people out at close to his career rate (9.30/9) and his walk rate has not skyrocketed (3.54/9). Also his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .337, which is far higher than his .302 career average. For those who aren't privy to any kind of advanced metrics, BABIP is considered a luck stat for pitchers because outside of allowing a fly ball, line drive or ground ball, he has little control over what happens after that. Once a large sample size can be accrued (and in Johnson's case this is a HUGE sample) we can get an idea of what amount of balls hit into play will turn into hits. When both the home runs and the hits regress, we are going to see a huge hot streak from Johnson. The only way this doesn't happen is if he has been playing hurt, which I don't believe.
2. Ricky Nolasco - Marlins - P - His BABIP is an insane .387, and there is no way this can continue. His strikeout rate is actually improved, and his walk rate hasn't been significantly worse. His Line Drive rate has spiked, and that can be a sign that he has become more hittable, but I say that he starts to put things together in the second half (just like last year) and becomes very valuable to teams down the stretch.
3. Jon Lester - Boston - P - .385 BABIP (compared to .314 career) + a K/9 and K/BB that is better than his career numbers by a significant margin + a Line Drive rate that is super low = a great run in the works for Jon Lester. He is still very young, and don't let this rough start deter you from acquiring Lester.
4. John Danks - White Sox - P - His BABIP is a little high and everything else looks great. His strikeout rate is actually higher and remember he is only 23. Inconsistency is expected, and when he turns it around, you are going to wish you had him on your team.
5. Cole Hamels - Phillies - P - It may be possible that his owner hasn't given up on him, but if you can get him for any sort of reduced price you should do it. He has gotten his yearly injury out of the way, his peripherals are great and he is a top 5 fantasy pitcher without any problem. Buy buy buy.
Enigmas - this is a list of players who could go either way and I'm not sure if they will turn it around or not: Fausto Carmona (needs to lower his walk rate to have any success 30k/30bb is not cutting it), Fransisco Liriano (having huge problems with his HR rate, the 30 allowed this year would be more than the 20 he had allowed in his career previous to this year), Clayton Kershaw (at age 20 is he just too young to have success at this level), Jordan Zimmerman (Same as Kershaw), Kevin Slowey (Can he stop allowing home runs and being to complement his stellar k/bb), Armando Gallaraga (showing signs of turning it around, but can he control the walks), and Chien Ming-Wang (Can he regain control of his sinker)
People who I think are not going to turn it around - Josh Beckett (Has not been really good since coming to Boston except for one pretty good season and a lot of playoff success), Scott Baker (allowing a ton of HRs, not striking anyone out, hasn't been the same since coming off the DL), Ryan Dempster (He is what he is, he was never as good as last season in the first place), AJ Burnett (Huge injury risk, only really dominant in Ks anyway and will kill your WHIP), Chris Young (Always has allowed too many flyballs to have sustainable success, finally paying for it), Rich Harden (will eventually get injured) and Brett Myers (total headcase that I don't trust at all).
Guys I totally believe in but weren't horrible enough to make the top list:
Brandon Webb - I totally believe in, he has just been hurt, if you can get him cheaply, do it, he can win you a matchup down the stretch.
Roy Oswalt - Won't be the Oswalt of his absolute prime, but should be able to get his ERA back down to 3.5 by the end of the year.
Scott Kazmir - Always has injury problems, but that is part of the package with him. Don't set your expectations too high as he is likely going to end up with an ERA close to 4.
I will leave you with two more guys that present huge risk/reward plays but I believe have shown signs of turning it around.
1. Gil Meche - He has said he was fighting stamina issues and I think if he can get past those he can be huge for you down the stretch. The Royals have been much better and can finally give run support. He is still striking out a guy an inning and can likely be had very cheaply.
2. Carl Pavano - K/BB is great, has started to look better and at one time was a huge prospect. Not someone I would grab at the cost of someone with value, but definitely someone to keep an eye on.
Best of luck in all your leagues.
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